Peramalan Harga Batubara Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Lee

Hasrin Citra Utami, Tedy Agung Cahyadi, Rika Ernawati

Abstract


Peramalan harga suatu komoditas tambang perlu dilakukan. Hal ini penting karena akan mempengaruhi keputusan perusahaan dalam memulai sebuah proyek pertambangan. Untuk dapat mengetahui suatu harga pada masa yang akan datang dapat digunakan data masa lampau. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan variabel data time series harga batubara selama 24 bulan dari tahun 2021-2022. Metode yang diterapkan yaitu Fuzzy Time Series Lee, dari hasil penelitian dapat diketahui bahwa untuk peramalan harga batubara menggunakan metode FTS Lee didapatkan keakuratan peramalan dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 4,0378% dimana hasil tersebut masuk kedalam kategori sangat akurat yaitu < 10%. Dari hasil penelitian juga didapatkan hasil peramalan harga batubara untuk bulan januari 2023 yaitu sebesar 275 $/ton.

Forecasting the price of a mining commodity needs to be done. This is important because it will influence the company's decision to start a mining project. To be able to find out a price in the future, past data can be used. This research uses coal price time series data for 24 months from 2021-2022. The method used is Lee's Fuzzy Time Series, from the research results it can be seen that for forecasting coal prices using the FTS Lee method, the accuracy of forecasting is obtained with a MAPE value of 4.0378% where the results fall into the very accurate category, it is <10%. From the results of the study, the outcome of forecasting coal prices for January 2023 was also obtained, it is $ 275 / ton.


Keywords


Harga Batubara, Fuzzy Time Series Lee

Full Text:

PDF

References


Andini, T. D., & Auristandi, P. (2016). Peramalan Jumlah Stok Alat Tulis Kantor Di UD Achmad Jaya Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. In Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi dan Informasia ASIA (JITIKA) (Vol. 10, Issue 1).

Arif, S., Aryo P. W., & Fadhila, A. R. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Konsumsi Batubara Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral dan Batubara (Vol. 16, No.2)

Asnawi, & Sukarna. (2006). Analisis Deret Waktu: Teori dan Aplikasi. Andira Publisher.

Bova, S., Codara, P., Maccari, D., & Marra, V. (n.d.). A Logical Analysis of Mamdani-type Fuzzy Inference, I Theoretical Bases.

Brillinger, D. R. (2015). Time Series : General. In International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences : Second Edition (Second Edi, Vol.23). Elsevier.

Dr. Priyono, M. (2016). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif. Sidoarjo: Zifatama Publishing.

Handayani, L., & Anggriani, D. (2015). Perbandingan Model Chen Dan Model Lee Pada Metode Fuzzy Time Series Untuk Prediksi Harga Emas. In Jurnal Pseudocode (Vol. 2, Issue 1).

Jay, H., & Render, B. (2015). Operation Management. Ed.11

Lewis, C. D. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods: a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting. Boston: Butterworth Scientific.

Makridakis, Wheelwright, & McGee. (1999). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Binarupa Aksara.

Mohammad Reza febrino, Dony Permana, Syafriandi, & Nonong Amalita. (2023). Comparison of Forecasting Using Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and Lee Model to Closing Price of Composite Stock Price Index. UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 1(2), 74–81.

Muhammad, M., Wahyuningsih, S., & Siringoringo, M. (2021). Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Peternakan Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Lee. Jambura Journal of Mathematics, 3(1), 1–15.

Pajriati, N. H., Kurniati, E., & Suhaedi, D. (2021). Penerapan Metode Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Lee Untuk Peramalan Harga Emas Di PT. X. Jurnal Riset Matematika, 1(1), 73–81.

Robinson, G. M., & Sciences, S. (2020). Time Series Analysis. In International Encyclopedia of Human Geography (Second Edi, Vol.13). Elsevier.

Ross, T. J. (2010). Front Matter. In Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications. Wiley.

Runtunuwu, P., C., H., & M. Kotib. (2021). Matematika Ekonomi. Solok. Mitra Cendekia Media.

Widodo, Prabowo Pudjo, & Rahmadya Trias. (2009). Penerapan Soft Computing dengan Matlab. Bandung: Rekayasa Sains.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.31284/j.semitan.j.2023.v2i1.5148

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.